The 2024 Presidential Election
Here is a friend link to read if you are not a Medium member.
One of my favorite movie scenes occurs in Beverly Hills Cop, where Eddie Murphy is placed under the care of two new police detectives after successfully escaping his previous police babysitters by sticking multiple bananas in their car's tailpipe. The bananas in the exhaust pipe caused their car to stall and they could not restart it.
The new crew tells him they will not fall for the banana in the tailpipe. He mocks the latest team by saying in a sing-song voice, "Oh, you are not going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe." Then, he proceeds to bewilder them with a trick just as egregious as the banana in the tailpipe.
I feel like America has already had our tailpipe stuffed twice with the last two elections regarding polling where Donald Trump was a participant. We don't want to do this a third time.
2016 Polls Predict a Clinton Win
In 2016, after Donald Trump won the Presidency, there was a lot of hand-wringing. Polls had his opponent, Hillary Clinton, ahead by five points nationwide and in the critical states. The national polls predicted a comfortable victory for her. She lost.
"In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton…Media outlets and pollsters took the heat for failing to project a victory for Donald Trump." scientificamerica.com, Why The Polls Were Mostly Wrong
2020 Polls Predicted a Clear Biden Win
In 2020, the polls showed incumbent President Trump underperformed Joe Biden in many states. The states were competitive, but they were much less so. Again, Trump underperformed in the polling. Biden won by 4 points and barely won in some key states.
"Most pre-election polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not."
pewresearchcenter.org, What 2020s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Trump Will Underperform in the Polls for a Third Time
Former President Donald Trump will underperform in the polls yet again, this time against VP Kamala Harris. Harris's supporters must be careful about taking too much stock in the polls that show her pulling ahead of Trump. The reasons the polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020 are still in play in 2024. There are four major reasons I think that we may be in danger of making the same mistakes.
1. Lying. Some people don't want to admit that they are voting for Donald Trump. Their circle of friends and family would be shocked to know that they support the Republican candidate, so they don't admit it to anyone — particularly not a stranger trying to poll them.
I live in deep red Florida. I suspect a large number of my neighbors are Trump supporters but you would never get them to admit it. At least, not to me.
2. Voter Turnout. Trump's team has successfully turned out a core of voters who are with him no matter what. These voters will vote. This ability to mobilize his voters will lead to better-than-expected results.
Voters vote when they are angry and Trump voters are always miserable about something. They will not miss casting their votes.
3. Non-traditional Voters. Many voters who are disenchanted with the political establishment will support Trump. These days, older people do not answer a phone number they do not recognize, which does not give pollsters access to their opinions. Older voters, Boomers, skew toward Trump.
4. Shifts in Political Dynamics. Things change quickly in politics. In 2016, the FBI announced another Clinton laptop/email investigation two weeks before the election, certainly changing some voters' views of Clinton. Who knows what could have happened had the FBI not taken that action?
5. Undecided and late-deciding voters. Those who appear undecided on the polls and then vote for someone. Late deciders or undecided voters may vote for Trump more than expected.
My mom claimed she never made up her mind until she walked into the voting booth — even though she was a lifelong Democrat. Who knows who she actually voted for all those years? I sure don't.
6. Poll Accuracy and Methodology: Some polls may not account for specific demographic shifts or changes in voter turnout. Polling methods vary, which will affect accuracy.
All my life, I have never been contacted by a pollster and I suspect I never will be.
7. Poll Sampling Errors: Some polls overrepresent certain demographic groups, which do not accurately reflect the electorate. For example, if a poll sample is skewed towards urban areas, that poll will not fully capture Trump's rock-hard support in rural areas.
2016 and 2020 are cautionary tales that must be considered as the polls trend toward Kamala Harris with her even overtaking Trump in some swing states.
Trump has done better than expected by a margin of four to six points every time he has run. There is no reason to think he will not do at least that well in 2024.
This produces a scenario in which each poll must be taken with a grain of salt. If Harris is not up by at least six points, her team must motivate voters as if she is behind—because she is.
Actions should not be determined using the polling results as a guide as we have been lulled into a state of complacency before. Harris's team needs to fight as if she is behind no matter how many pundits or pools say she is ahead.
Everyone supporting Harris needs to be diligent in staying on track no matter how big her lead appears to be.
This is not the time for an unpleasant surprise on election day. I hate surprises. The data says to be cautious, and caution with enthusiasm is warranted. I believe that America is a learning organization that pays attention to the past as we plan our future. We will not be fooled again.
I hope I am right.
Toni Crowe ran away with a pimp when she was 17. She was saved from prostitution by her ability to manage money and run away ASAP. Her book, Never a $7 Whore. was the Winner of the 2019 Readers Favorite Gold Award in Non-Fiction Drama. Available on Amazon.
