TL;DR — In the coming decades, robots will begin mining the planet Mercury for metals. Those abundant materials will allow us to quickly reflect and utilize most of the energy released by our Sun. That will power an explosion of colonization to other stars, all in rapid succession. We won't wait for one colony to set-up shop, before sending Seed Ships to every star nearby! Here, I explore what we can expect from that firecracker:

"Whosoever is Lord of the planet Mercury,

Has grasped the reins of Helios!

All the power of our day is theirs,

Set-sail for every world at ONCE.

Those who may cup Mercury…

…cradle the Milky Way."

Space Mining

Awhile back, I wrote about how robotic mining in space would allow the robots to build more of themselves quite quickly — I estimated that their factories in space would double themselves every year or two. Yet! Astrophysicists and engineers asked the same question, later that same year; they published an estimated doubling-time of SIX to NINE MONTHS! Whoa.

What does "doubling every six months" look like? Imagine: "Space-based mining has been picking-up speed, with increased direct investment and innovative prototypes being deployed. Don't worry, though — space-mining is only one MILLIONTH the size of our Earthly economy…" Then, only five years later: "Wow — space mining has doubled every six months, and now it represents 0.1% of the Earth's GDP." In another five years: "Gosh, space-mining is now EQUAL to the ENTIRE economy on Earth, after just one decade…" Five years later: "Space-based economic activity is a THOUSAND times greater than the output of the whole Earth, guys. It's only been fifteen years!"

THAT is what a "six-month doubling-time" looks like.

We will mine the few asteroids which circle Earth, first. Then, we mine the metallic asteroids in the asteroid-belt. Yet, those all-together are only a few percent the mass of our Moon! In only a few decades of space-mining, all eyes will turn to Mercury…

Why Mercury?

Various metals are precious for their use in electronics, chemical catalytics, dopants for alloys and lenses, superconductors, etc. Those metals tended to fall towards the Sun when our planets formed. Mercury has 80% of the recoverable precious metals, for all of our technology. It is vital to the future of space-activity.

If one group is mining the planet Mercury, then they can dole-out those precious metals at a high margin. This is NOT the case with interplanetary supplies of nitrogen, for example — nitrogen is found on many, dispersed bodies, such that miners will compete with each other to sell it, and prices are driven lower. Mercury will be able to sell a small chunk of its total mass, using their monopoly for high profit-margins, to buy entire moons and worlds.

And, the sheer volume of material we can extract from the planet Mercury is sufficient to enshroud our own star with reflectors, to concentrate that sunlight for our economic activity. The Earth and Moon will still receive their full dose of sunlight; all of the other directions the light takes will strike mirrors.

Gobbling-Up the Daylight

The power of our sun is immense, difficult to grasp. Once Mercury is being mined in earnest, this abundant power will flow into our economic domain, lowering the cost of projects which would otherwise seem extravagant or impossible. Sending a Seed Ship to another star, loaded with technology and data, raw materials and equipment, becomes a trivial exercise. We will have a supply of power which allows us to launch thousands of Seed Ships each year, to every potentially useful star.

Those colonized stars will be mined by robots, as well. And humans will not wait for the terraforming of a stray planet within reach — instead, they will live in O'Neill Cylinders, rotating to create the effect of gravity. The goal in those places, just as it was here: to mine those worlds nearest their star, full of precious metals for technology.

Each star's colonization will require centuries. We won't wait for Alpha Centauri colonists to build-up their own industries, to launch further Seed Ships on their own! Instead, once the ROI on colonies exceeds the return on local activity here, then the switch is flipped: Seed Ships are sent continually forth, keeping their bearings toward thousands of worlds, BEFORE the first of them have even arrived at their destination!

Who Goes?

We can't let robots go alone. Once they arrive in some star-system hundreds of light-years away, then there is a centuries-long lag between communications! If anything went wrong, we would be powerless to respond. I fear that if we seed the galaxy with robotic intelligence, then we have sown a field of villains.

Yet, the sort of humans who would like to go…? They may be worse.

The folks who have the biological longevity to travel through space would fall into certain clumps, according to their goals. Those goals determine how they travel, and what resources they target. Here:

First are the 'Edge-Lords'. These are the ultra-wealthy who wish to rule over their own pocket of the Cosmos, deified. They hope to travel fastest, furthest, to be ahead of other colonists. That speed-advantage lets them set-up shop in their area, unopposed. They won't stop or slow-down until they reach their corner of the galaxy, to build their kingdoms.

Second: the 'Lunatics'. These are groups who pool their resources, due to some shared, fervent belief. They set-out to capture resources as quickly as possible, to grow their numbers abroad. They make pit-stops in stellar orbits, to grab the precious metals and volatiles from local asteroids and small moons — the easiest and fastest pickings! Then, they move-on with their haul, digesting it while in-transit to their next scavenge-site.

Third, are the coordinated and agnostic Corporations; these entities absorb people of different perspectives under a shared benefit. They take the time to live in one place, comfortably, while their enterprise devours entire planets. Mining a planet takes centuries; they won't need to migrate to new stars any time soon. Yet, they will need to migrate, eventually, because of the Big Fish on their tail:

Last is the Stellar Empire. This begins in the stars nearest Earth; those stars are torn-apart and converted into equipment, technology, fuel. A single star, cannibalized, will provide the same total material as hundreds of planetary systems. The Star-Eaters are the 800-lb gorilla, out-massing all competitors.

Luckily for everyone else, it takes time to eat a star and convert it into useful technology. The Star-Eaters are slowest to expand, pushing in one direction at a time, overwhelming their competitors. The spoils from each invasion are worth more than mining all of that star's planets.

Waves of Desolation

It will be difficult to rein-in the rich, to prevent them from escaping our grasp and founding their own empires on the rim of the galaxy. Same for religious and political fringes. And corporations will likely push further and faster than governments, taking whole planets for themselves while the Stellar Empire busily enriches the core of our celestial region. The part of our story that we can control is the nature of that Star-Eater. Will they be a corporation, too? A democracy? An AGI with humans overseeing it, each human vetted by regular brain scans? I'd pick that last one.

Whichever way that structure of governance operates, I can guarantee that it will end in ruin if it does NOT disperse power and abundant resources properly. Abundance does not bring liberty from wants, if all of that abundance flows from a despot's hand.

A Common Inheritance

To avoid the atrocity of a planetary corporation, a royal hegemony, fanatics and vicious rich-bastards run-rampant — then the planet Mercury, and the solar reflectors it creates, must be the common inheritance of Humanity. We must all have a say, and all have a share of the dividend. Anything less is Doom.