I need to tell you something nobody wants to hear.

The job market isn't going to recover. Not back to the way it was. Not in time to save most of us.

I know that sounds dramatic. I know you're probably thinking "he's being negative" or "it can't be that bad." But I've spent the last four months sending out 450+ job applications. I've watched the numbers. I've read the forecasts. I've talked to people in the same nightmare.

I've gotten hundreds of emails and read comments on Medium and LinkedIn from people who have been reading my articles. They all feel the same crunch, are in the same boat.

And the data is clear: we're not in a temporary slowdown. We're in a fundamental transformation. And most of us are on the wrong side of it.

The Numbers Nobody Wants to Face

Between 2025 and 2030, 22% of all jobs will be disrupted, 170 million new jobs created, but 92 million displaced, for a net gain of only 78 million jobs globally.

Let that sink in. One in five jobs will fundamentally change or disappear in the next five years. The World Economic Forum also says 40% of employers expect to reduce their workforce where AI can automate tasks, with entry-level positions facing particular vulnerability.

This isn't a recession. This isn't a correction. This is a restructuring. And it's happening right now.

Job growth is expected to turn modestly negative through the first quarter of 2026 as high tariffs, weaker immigration, and elevated interest rates restrain demand for labor.

Translation: it's going to get worse before it gets better. If it gets better at all.

What the "Experts" Are Actually Saying

I spent the past few days reading economic forecasts. Reports from the World Economic Forum. Analysis from Deloitte. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

You know what they all say? The same thing, wrapped in different corporate language:

The old job market is dead.

39% of current tech skills will be obsolete by 2030. Even the people with "in-demand" skills are getting left behind. That means if you're not constantly learning new skills, you're falling behind. Fast.

The jobs that are growing? Frontline roles like farmworkers, delivery drivers, construction workers, and care economy jobs like nursing.

So if you're a mid-level professional with 20 years of experience? You're screwed. The jobs being created don't want you. The jobs you're qualified for are disappearing.

The AI Bubble Nobody Wants to Talk About

Everyone's terrified AI is going to take their job. And they should be. But not for the reason they think. AI isn't actually replacing that many jobs yet. But companies are using it as an excuse to not hire anyone.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Axios that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10–20% in the next one to five years.

But here's what nobody's saying out loud: OpenAI took in $4.3 billion in income in the first half of 2025 and still reported a net loss of $13.5 billion.

ChatGPT loses money almost every time you use it. The entire AI industry is burning through cash faster than it's making it. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Big Tech will spend $3 trillion on AI infrastructure through 2028, with their own cash flows covering only half of that.

This is a bubble. And when it bursts, it's going to make the dot-com crash look like a minor correction.

Tech companies have announced more than 141,000 job cuts so far this year, a 17% increase from last year. Half a million tech workers have lost their jobs since 2023.

But companies keep telling investors "we're cutting costs with AI." It's bullshit. They're just cutting costs. AI is the excuse that sounds better than "we overhired and now we're fixing it."

Why This Time Is Different

I've been through recessions before. I was working during the dot-com crash. I survived the 2008 financial crisis. I made it through COVID.

This feels different. Because it is.

In past downturns, companies stopped hiring temporarily. They laid people off. But they eventually started hiring again when the economy recovered.

This time? The U.S. labor participation rate was 61.7% in 2020 and is projected to dip to 60.4% by 2030. Fewer people working. More people retiring. And companies aren't planning to replace them.

By 2030, one in five Americans will be age 65 or older. We're headed for a society with more grandparents than grandchildren. The workforce is shrinking. And companies are using AI as cover to not fill positions.

The population is aging. Birth rates are collapsing. Immigration is down. The workforce is getting smaller. And the jobs that exist are changing faster than people can adapt.

So What the Hell Do You Do?

I'm not going to sugarcoat this. Your options aren't great. But they exist.

Option 1: Freelancing

The number of independent contractors surged by 50% between 2019 and 2024.

Companies that won't hire full-time employees will still pay contractors. They get the work done without the commitment. Without the benefits. Without the liability.

It's not stable. It's not secure. But it's income.

I've been ghostwriting for 20 years. I know how to pitch clients. I know how to deliver work. I know how to get paid. And right now, freelancing is keeping me alive.

You take what skills you have (writing, design, coding, project management, consulting) and you sell them project by project. Client by client. Month by month.

I did this with Quicken for a year and a half. It paid well. It was good work. Then they pivoted and I was out.

Is it exhausting? Yes. Do you have to constantly hustle? Yes. But at least you're working.

Option 2: Starting a Business

52% of people are considering starting a new business in 2025, with 33% planning to run it as a side hustle while keeping their day job. People aren't starting businesses because they're entrepreneurial. They're starting businesses because they can't get hired.

I'm doing this right now. I'm building a Skool community for people over 40 navigating career transitions. I'm packaging my ghostwriting services. I'm creating digital products based on what I already know.

Will it work? I don't know. But it's better than sending out another 450 applications and getting ghosted.

You don't need a business plan. You don't need startup capital. You just need to use what you already have and find people willing to pay for it.

Option 3: Consulting

This is freelancing's older, better-paid cousin.

You take your 10 or 20 years of experience and you sell it as expertise. You help companies solve problems. You advise. You strategize. You get paid for what you know, not just what you do.

The catch? You need a network. You need credibility. You need to be able to sell yourself as an expert, not just a worker. But if you can pull it off, consulting pays better than freelancing and feels more prestigious than "I'm between jobs."

Option 4: Wait for Universal Basic Income

In 2024, Catalonia launched one of Europe's most ambitious UBI initiatives, with 5,000 residents receiving $906 per month for adults and $400 for children.

UBI pilots are running all over the world. Catalonia. Kenya. Parts of the U.S. The results are promising. Recipients experienced reduced anxiety, higher life satisfaction, and increased confidence, with many using the income to invest in personal projects like starting businesses.

But here's the reality: no country has implemented a full nationwide UBI yet. And even if they do, it won't be enough to live on comfortably. It'll be survival money. Baseline money. Keep-the-lights-on money.

So yeah, UBI might happen eventually. But don't hold your breath waiting for it to save you.

The Reality Nobody Wants to Admit

Here's what I've learned after three months of job hunting and weeks of research: The traditional job market: the one where you apply, interview, get hired, work for a few years, then move to another company, is dying.

It's not dead yet. Some people will still get those jobs. But fewer and fewer. And mostly not people like us. If you're over 50, you're too old. If you're under 30, you're too inexperienced. If you're in your 30s or 40s, you're competing with AI and people willing to work for less.

The system isn't broken. It's working exactly as designed. It's just not designed for us anymore.

What I'm Actually Doing

I'm back in the Philippines with my family. My wife and I are figuring out how to make this work with whatever income I can scrape together.

I'm not waiting for a company to hire me. I'm building my own thing.

I'm writing on Medium. Some articles go viral. Thousands of people read them. They tell me my words help them feel less alone.

I'm ghostwriting for clients who need someone who can tell their stories. I'm building a community for people navigating the same nightmare I am.

Is it working? Not yet. Am I making enough money? No. Do I know if this will save me? Absolutely not. But I know this: I can't go back to applying for jobs that don't respond. I can't keep betting on a system that's already shown me it doesn't want me.

So I'm betting on myself instead. Using what I have. Building something nobody can reject me from. Because it's mine.

If You're Reading This

You're probably in the same boat. You've sent out hundreds of applications. You've been ghosted. You've lowered your salary expectations. You've applied for jobs you're overqualified for.

And it's not working.

So maybe it's time to stop trying to fit into a system that doesn't want you. And start building something that does. I'm not saying it's easy. I'm not promising you'll succeed. I'm not even sure I'll succeed.

But I know the job market isn't coming back. Not the way it was. Not in time to save us.

So we have to save ourselves.

Pick one of those options. Freelancing. Consulting. Contracting. Starting a business. Or some combination of all of them. Use what you already know. Find people who need it. Charge them for it. Build from there.

It won't be stable. It won't be secure. But at least it's yours.

And right now, that might be the best option we have.

What are you doing? Drop a comment. Are you freelancing? Starting something? Still trying to get hired? Let's figure this out together.

I sent out 450 applications at 57. Got nowhere. Now I'm freelancing and helping others do the same. Join my Skool group if you're 40+ and ready to build something that doesn't depend on age-blind hiring. It's free for now.

It won't be forever.

Also, if you are on LinkedIn or Threads and want to connect, let's do!

One more thing…

If this post added value to your life, consider either joining my Ko-fi, or leaving me a tip. Every little bit helps when you are trying to make a living writing.