Modern societies have a fundamental social contract. It comes down to this: even in closed societies like Russia, we can expect some response in case of a significant emergency. It's spring, not just the season of mud but also the season of floods. And boy, are these floods spectacular.

So first, let a Russian explain how Russia is failing spectacularly:

"Russia is investing money in the Ukrainian front. Accordingly, the ass is bare, there is nothing to cover it with." Political scientist Oreshkin talks about why it is so difficult for the country to cope with the flood.

The governor of the Kurgan region called on residents to immediately evacuate from the right (low) bank of the Tobol River. The region, following the Orenburg region, may be seriously damaged by floods.

Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin told MO why the country is suffering such serious losses from the annual natural phenomenon.

"The system of priorities, which is supported by Putin's Russia, and before that by Soviet Russia, is concentrated on the fact that resources — material, human, ideological — from the vast territory of the country are drawn to the center, and there they are used for some mega-important sovereign task . Be it the conquest of Europe, the conquest of space, the transfer of the flow of Siberian rivers to Central Asia… Something so great. As a result, there is no money left in the regions and they are very dependent on the center. Contempt for one's people, contempt for the territory is reflected in the fact that the territory is not ready to withstand a crisis attack ."

This situation has been going on for several generations, says Oreshkin.

"So we limp, while telling ourselves how great and powerful we are. But we can't cope with the flood, we can't cope with the sewage system, we can't improve the standard of living, we're struggling with alcoholism rather weakly, it doesn't matter with health care, and so on. Two scales, two systems of priorities. People try not to think about it, but now they are indignant — their housing is flooded, what are they supposed to do now? The water will go away, but the houses will remain damp. How to live there?

The political scientist compared the spending of the Putin regime on the war and on helping its citizens.

"Restoration (after the flood), according to official estimates, will cost 40 billion rubles. Waste money for the Russian budget. The war costs 30 billion rubles a day. The entire cost of this natural disaster is several days of war . And these days we already have… Russia is investing money in the Ukrainian front. Accordingly, the ass is bare, there is nothing to cover it with."

Yes, some of this is due to a lack of cash. Some of this is not investing in the services meant to deal with this. Some are the ever-popular Russian corruption. This is about one of the dams:

The destruction of the dam in Orsk began precisely from the foundation laid 10 years ago on fallen trees: with increasing pressure, water began to ooze from under the dam. And then in four sections the faults went up — they created gates through which streams poured. They tried to quickly bury them. But this could not be done due to its narrowness, says forensic expert Oleg Dyukarev. According to an expert who wished to remain anonymous, technical specialists, and therefore the authorities, understood that after a certain level of water, that is, pressure on the base of the dam, it could begin to collapse. In addition, the dam project included a clause on the conclusion of an insurance contract for liability to third parties in the event of a dam failure. The amount of compensation in case of damage to the property of individuals is up to 750,000 rubles, legal entities — up to 1 million rubles, but local residents were not warned about the danger in time — Forbes.

Now the question is, where did much of the money spent on this civil project go? I also assumed it was the Soviet era; it goes to me for thinking it was old, suppose. It was built during the post-Soviet era, and let's say a lot of mice did get very, very rich.

So when authorities blamed mice for undermining the dam's base, were they referring to those getting the contracts? That's cheeky, which brings me to how this looks like a larger crack in the ice.

First, the screencap points to at least a citizen or two talking about independence from the Rodina. This points to a larger crack. So, let's go into a tad of speculation based on Russian and Mexican history, only as closed societies.

So, there were two incidents, significant disasters precisely, in two different countries. The first is Chernobyl. The second was the 1985 Mexico City earthquake.

From where we sit in an open society, disasters, whether natural or man-made, are events that reveal corruption, pain, humanity, and the government's ability to respond. You mention it. But most of the time, the response is decent enough not to become a point of societal fracture.

In closed societies, these are incredibly dangerous. They reveal weaknesses and how much mere citizens don't matter. Enter Chernobyl. When it started, the Russian government did not reveal how bad it was. People were told all was good and there was no problem.

In reality, the extent of the crisis was revealed by Western rad monitors hours to days after the fact. It was a Western alarm that finally led to the government admitting there was a problem. That event led to the rise of perestroika and the end of official secrecy. This openness and the end of control of storylines led to the rise of organizations like Memorial, whose job is to document the Gulag. As Russia has closed, they have become a foreign agent. Remember that Joseph Stalin is being restored as a great national leader.

Then, there was the Mexico City earthquake in 1985. During my time in EMS, I straddled that quake. Civil defense in Mexico is literally before that quake and after that quake. Granted, the explosion a year before at San Juanico revealed some of the significant stress fractures in the Mexican disaster response. However, it was small enough that they could paper it over.

The response to that earthquake was shambolic at best. The Mexican government refused to admit how bad it was; unlike Russia, more open media transmitted this response to Mexico and the rest of the world. After two weeks, Mexico finally agreed to receive some help because we were too proud to accept it. This is also a parallel with Russia and Chornobyl.

While there was a lot of heroism (and stupidity revealing a shambolic response) at Chornobyl, Russia never asked for or accepted offers for help. Perhaps they did not want to take it because they did not want to reveal just how much of a disaster it was. It's what came next.

Russians enjoyed some honesty from their government for the first time. We could argue that it was one of the factors that led to the end of the USSR. When Russian soldiers started digging in the red forest during the early part of this war, it made me wonder if that military was even aware of what happened at Chornobyl thirty-eight years ago. Their constant threats to the nuclear plant at Zaporizhia make me wonder the same. In a newly closed society, not teaching people about that level of incompetence is not surprising.

The Mexico City earthquake led to a lot of criticism within Mexican society. The reason for the Los Topos search and rescue team is precisely that disaster. Local citizens started doing rescue with their bare hands because nobody was coming. They used whatever they could. Most of the people doing it had no training. These days, Los Topos responds anywhere they are allowed around the world.

They were a symptom. The distrust began the end of the PRI dominance in Mexican politics. The national media became critical of the government. While they have lost some of that, it was also the beginning of investigative journalism, which in Mexico did not exist before that earthquake.

The closest to that was the 1968 student protest right before the Olympics. That led to a further clampdown, with the next two decades filled with a dirty war with the Mexican left and desaparecidos. The earthquake brought that to an end.

This brings me to the floods in Russia right now. People may not care much about a distant terrorist attack in Moscow. Plus, that was Moscow. People living in Orsk may as well be living on the other side of the moon. Which reminds me, as far as that particular city, this also emerged today:

The mayor of flooded Orsk took his family to Dubai

Investigators from Navalny's team spoke about this. Just a month ago, Vasily Kozupitsa's son bought an apartment in Dubai; his wife shared the fact of the purchase on Instagram. According to investigators, a 91-meter apartment in an elite residential complex with a swimming pool and a gym should have cost Nikolai Kozupitsa approximately 33 million rubles.

The Kozupits family left Russia in October 2023. And they sold the Russian apartment earlier — in October 2022, immediately after the start of mobilization. Since then they have lived in Saudi Arabia. All this, including residence permits for all family members, is published in the public domain.

Investigators insist that the financial side of this story is directly related to the mayor of Orsk:

"During a short break in his bureaucratic career, Vasily Kozupitsa headed a private security company, which he registered in the name of his son, the same Nikolai. And he was listed as a co-owner of the Orsk private security company right up until last year."

Vasily Kozupitsa has been heading Orsk since 2019. The city became the epicenter of the worst flood in recent years. Kozupica said that the authorities "inspected the hydraulic structures in advance," and on April 3 he even inspected the dam himself and assessed its condition as satisfactory.

The dam in Orsk burst on the evening of April 5 — on the same day Kozupitsa again checked it personally and found no problems. After this, the authorities declared a state of emergency and the evacuation of residents began. Thousands of houses were flooded and at least one person was killed. The mayor promised to allocate 100 thousand rubles to the victims.

His son is of military age. I guarantee that his son would not serve for the empire's glory. They also bought extensive property in Dubai. They have Saudi ID cards. It gives the impression that the family intends to leave the motherland. No, I decided against posting the Saudi ID cards out of respect for his minor children.

So, this is a long way to say that these floods will become another crack if patterns persist in a closed society. It took time for Chornobyl to make its way to dissolution. This might be faster only because this is on top of many more cracks. How do I know this is a crack? As much as Russia is trying hard to close down investigative reporting, this also emerged:

The Orenburg region was on the list of regions in which the Ministry of Emergency Situations predicted flooding due to spring floods

The Ministry of Emergency Situations predicted the "highest probability of flooding" of populated areas this spring in the Orenburg region, where by Thursday morning almost 12 thousand residential buildings were flooded. This is stated in the department's final report on natural and man-made emergencies for 2023, Vorstka found.

The Orenburg region was on the list of 35 regions where, according to forecasts by the Ministry of Emergency Situations, populated areas could be flooded "as a result of spring floods and intense snowmelt." Moreover, the department's report also predicted the exact timing of the opening of rivers in the region, which ultimately coincided with the flood — the first and second ten days of April .

In general, the Ministry of Emergency Situations assumed that the conditions for the formation of a flood situation in 2024 "correspond to the long-term average parameters," and the total number of emergencies associated with the passage of the flood will not exceed 25.

💜 The Orenburg region turned out to be the region most affected by the spring floods. According to the local administration, as of the morning of April 11, almost 12 thousand houses in 78 settlements remained flooded in the region. In the regional center, the water level in the Ural River reached 1,082 cm. The critical level was exceeded by 152 cm.

💜 In addition to the Orenburg region, residents of other regions also suffered from spring floods this April, where the Ministry of Emergency Situations predicted flooding, in particular, the Kemerovo, Tomsk, Samara and Tyumen regions.

Anybody familiar with patronage in closed societies can see the pattern. That includes the people trapped in a place where they have lost everything. Like Chornobyl, the response to this has been shambolic.

I referred to Mexico City, too. While the parallel is imperfect, it also led to the end of the PRI as the only force in Mexican politics. The collapse of the peso and demands of the World Bank, including electoral integrity, also had something to do with it. However, disasters can mainly provide an impetus for change since they affect many people.

As I mentioned in a previous piece, the early warning radar system was affected. Now, there are rumors that the main factory for BTRs, a wheeled armored vehicle for the army, is also underwater. I bet that comes back online before anything else, though. And if a rail for transport is involved, that will be fixed too. The only happy side effect is that dealing with civilians involves rail.

Could this be a black swan event? There is one more event that adds to that.