According to the Ukrainian Pravda and the British Times, a briefing prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated:
"If the United States cuts off military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine may develop its own nuclear bomb within a few months."
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tikshi responded quickly:
"Ukraine has always been committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. We do not own, develop, or intend to acquire nuclear weapons. Ukraine maintains close cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and is fully transparent in all areas, ruling out the possibility of using nuclear materials for military purposes."
A former nuclear power
Why is Ukraine always troubled by the issue of nuclear weapons?
Because it was once the world's third largest nuclear power.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited a huge nuclear arsenal in its territory, including:
- 130 SS-19 intercontinental ballistic missiles; - 46 SS-24 "Scalpel" intercontinental ballistic missiles; - 1,700 nuclear warheads; - 33 strategic bombers; - 2,850 tactical nuclear weapons.
The scale of these equipments even far exceeds that of China, Britain and France.
However, after independence, Ukraine chose to abandon nuclear weapons and became a non-nuclear country.
Why did Ukraine abandon nuclear weapons?
Why does Ukraine regard nuclear weapons, which many countries dream of, as a "hot potato"?
There are several reasons:
1. High maintenance costs
The maintenance cost of nuclear weapons is extremely staggering.
It is estimated that the average annual maintenance cost of each nuclear weapon in the United States is as high as 10 million US dollars.
This is not a problem for the United States, which has strong economic strength, but it is an unbearable burden for Ukraine, which has a limited economic aggregate and the lowest per capita GDP in Europe.
2. The complex industrial chain left by the Soviet Union
The military-industrial system during the Soviet era was highly decentralized, with raw materials, parts, assembly and other links distributed in different republics.
The nuclear weapons inherited by Ukraine lack the technical capabilities for independent maintenance and operation.
3. International pressure
Ukraine's nuclear arsenal includes thermonuclear weapons such as hydrogen bombs. Once these ultra-high-power weapons get out of control, they are a threat to all mankind.
The five permanent members of the UN Security Council reached a rare consensus on this issue and demanded that Ukraine abandon its nuclear weapons.
The international community's commitment to Ukraine at that time
In 1994, the United States, Russia, Britain and Ukraine signed the "Budapest Memorandum".
According to the memorandum:
- The United States provides funds, Russia provides technology and services, and helps Ukraine destroy its nuclear weapons;
- The United States, Russia and Britain promise to safeguard Ukraine's national security.
China also issued a statement in the same year, promising:
1. Not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, a non-nuclear country;
2. If Ukraine is threatened or attacked by nuclear weapons, China will provide security guarantees.
On October 30, 2001, with the demolition of Ukraine's last SS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile silo, Ukraine officially declared itself a non-nuclear country.
If Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons that year
If Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons that year, what would the situation be like today?
The answer is almost certain: Russia will not easily launch a "special military operation."
Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, once made it clear:
"It is very dangerous to hope that a nuclear-armed country will fail."
The deterrent power of nuclear weapons should not be underestimated.
Even in the face of a serious crisis, a country with nuclear weapons can still ensure that its core interests are not violated.
It can be seen that Ukraine's abandonment of nuclear weapons that year may be a blessing for the world, but it may be a "failure" for its own national security.
The responsibility of breaking promises
Ukraine's abandonment of nuclear weapons was based on the security guarantees promised by many countries.
However, today, Ukraine has suffered an invasion and even lost the four eastern states of Ukraine, and the promises made in the past are like empty words.
Especially Russia, as the country that originally promised to guarantee Ukraine's security, broke its promise with its own hands.
This is not only a betrayal of Ukraine, but also a trampling of international treaties.
Impact on the world: the difficulty of abandoning nuclear weapons
Ukraine's experience has shown other countries that abandoning nuclear weapons does not necessarily bring peace.
In the future, countries that already have nuclear weapons will be more determined in their choices.
And those countries that do not yet have nuclear weapons but have security anxieties may accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.
This is undoubtedly a huge hidden danger to global security.
Final thoughts
If the international community cannot fulfill its security commitments to non-nuclear countries, the foundation of nuclear non-proliferation will be shaken.
The consequences of nuclear threats and broken promises are making the world less safe.
Who should bear this responsibility?